For years, the real estate formula in Tulum seemed almost too simple:
Buy an apartment. Furnish it. Put it on Airbnb. Rent it to tourists.
As tourism grew, so did investor demand. Developers responded with thousands of units designed around short stays: studios, lock-offs, compact apartments, rooftop pools and amenities created primarily for the vacation-rental guest.
For a while, the model worked extremely well.
Then the market changed.
Today, Tulum has a large amount of short-term rental inventory, nightly rates have come under pressure, buyers have considerably more negotiating power, and some owners who purchased during the boom are finding that the returns they expected aren’t necessarily the returns they’re achieving.
So, did Airbnb break Tulum’s real estate market?
Not exactly.
Airbnb was part of a much bigger cycle. The more interesting question is whether Tulum built too much real estate around one very specific type of demand — and what happens now that the market is becoming more selective.
How did Tulum get here?
Tulum’s growth didn’t happen overnight.
For years, increasing tourism and international attention attracted buyers looking for second homes and investment properties. The pandemic then created an unusual period for the destination, as Mexico remained relatively accessible to international travelers while many other destinations faced stricter restrictions.
Demand for Tulum real estate accelerated.
Developers responded to what buyers wanted at the time: properties that could generate income through short-term rentals.
That created a fairly predictable cycle:
More tourism → stronger rental expectations → more investors → more development → more short-term rental inventory.
And once developers saw what was selling, many built variations of the same product.
There is nothing inherently wrong with a studio, lock-off or vacation-oriented condominium. The problem comes when too much inventory is built around essentially the same use case.
Eventually, all those properties have to compete for the same guests.
What does “oversupply” actually mean?
Oversupply is often oversimplified.
It doesn’t mean that every property in Tulum is empty or that nobody is booking Airbnbs anymore.
It means there can be more inventory available than the market can absorb at the prices and returns owners expect.
And that distinction matters.
A private three-bedroom villa with a pool isn’t necessarily competing directly with a studio in a 150-unit condominium. A beachfront property isn’t targeting exactly the same traveler as an apartment farther inland.
But when guests have significantly more options overall, competition increases.
A property that previously rented for $250 per night may have to compete at $200. Another owner may offer a discount. Someone else includes airport transportation. A better-managed property accumulates hundreds of positive reviews.
Suddenly, simply having a nice apartment in Tulum isn’t enough.
What do the numbers actually tell us?
This is where the conversation becomes more complicated and more interesting.
According to AirDNA’s Tulum dataset, as of August 2026 the market had approximately 4,043 active short-term rental listings, with average occupancy of 46%, an average daily rate (ADR) of approximately $125, and RevPAR of approximately $57.
Compared with August 2025, AirDNA reports ADR down 23.2% and RevPAR down 10%. But occupancy was actually up 17.3% year over year, while its count of active listings was substantially lower.
That doesn’t look like a market where “nobody is coming.”
It looks more like a market going through repricing, changing supply and increased competition.
And even those numbers need context.
AirDNA’s separate “Greater Tulum” dataset shows approximately 43% occupancy, $206 ADR and $88 RevPAR as of August 2026. In that dataset, ADR was down 8.2% year over year while RevPAR was almost flat at -0.3%.
Why are the numbers so different?
Because short-term-rental data providers use different geographic boundaries and methodologies, and even one provider may divide a destination into different market areas.
That is exactly why we wouldn’t recommend buying a property based solely on a headline like “Tulum occupancy is 70%” or “the average Airbnb makes X.”
Tulum isn’t one Airbnb market.
The neighborhood, property type, number of bedrooms, management, price point, seasonality and guest profile all matter.
Occupancy alone can also be misleading
This is another number buyers often focus on too much.
Imagine two hypothetical properties:
Property A achieves 70% occupancy at an average nightly rate of $120.
That’s approximately $30,660 in annual gross room revenue.
Property B achieves only 55% occupancy but averages $200 per night.
That’s approximately $40,150.
Property B has substantially lower occupancy but generates roughly $9,500 more in gross annual room revenue.
And even gross revenue doesn’t tell you your return.
From there you still need to consider management, platform fees, HOA, electricity, maintenance, replacements, insurance, taxes and other operating expenses.
This is why we prefer looking at the entire operating history when it’s available rather than selling an investment based on one attractive occupancy percentage.
Oversupply doesn’t only affect bad properties
This is an important distinction.
It’s tempting to say that only badly designed, poorly located or lower-quality properties are struggling.
That’s not completely true.
Oversupply creates pressure across the market.
Good properties still have to compete.
What changes is how well different properties can defend their rates.
A distinctive villa, a property with exceptional outdoor space, an apartment with an ocean view or a professionally operated residence may have stronger reasons for a guest to choose it.
But none of those characteristics make a property immune to broader market conditions.
That’s why the question isn’t simply:
“Does Airbnb work in Tulum?”
It should be:
“How competitive is this particular property within its segment?”
And Airbnb itself isn’t disappearing
There’s another misconception worth clearing up. The global Airbnb business isn’t collapsing.
Airbnb reported 533 million nights and seats booked in 2025, up 8% from 2024, while gross booking value increased 12% to $91.3 billion. In Latin America specifically, nights and seats booked increased 18%.
The company’s booking value continued growing in the first half of 2026 as well.
So this isn’t really a story about Airbnb disappearing.
It’s about what happens in an individual destination when the supply of vacation rentals grows faster than the ability of every property to maintain the same rates and returns.
Those are two very different things.
The business behind the property matters more now
A few years ago, being present on Airbnb may have done much of the heavy lifting. In a more competitive environment, operation becomes increasingly important.
Photography matters. Reviews matter. Dynamic pricing matters. Guest communication matters. Housekeeping matters. Management matters. Distribution matters.
Two identical apartments in the same building can generate different results simply because one is operated better.
We’re also paying attention to projects and operators that aren’t relying entirely on one booking platform.
That can mean Airbnb plus other online travel agencies, repeat guests, a proprietary guest database and eventually direct bookings.
Even Airbnb itself acknowledges that hosts frequently cross-list properties and that some professional managers encourage guests to book directly rather than through the platform.
The goal isn’t necessarily to replace Airbnb.
It’s to build a rental business that doesn’t depend entirely on one source of bookings.
Meanwhile, we’re seeing another type of demand
There is another change happening on the ground that short-term-rental statistics don’t necessarily capture.
We’re seeing people looking to live in Tulum, or at least spend considerably longer periods here.
And someone staying for six months wants something very different from someone staying for six nights.
A vacation guest may not care about storage.
A resident does.
A kitchenette may work perfectly well for a week.
It becomes frustrating when it’s your kitchen every day.
A tourist may choose a development because it has an impressive rooftop pool.
A full-time resident might prioritize privacy, parking, laundry, reliable internet, a proper kitchen and enough room to work from home.
That doesn’t mean Tulum suddenly needs to stop building vacation rentals.
It means the market is becoming more diverse than vacation rentals alone.
A property doesn’t have to be either “Airbnb” or “residential”
This is probably one of the biggest changes in how we look at properties today.
The two categories don’t necessarily have to be mutually exclusive.
A well-designed two- or three-bedroom property might work as a short-term rental when the owner isn’t using it, a medium-term rental for someone spending several months in Tulum, a second home, and eventually a full-time residence.
That flexibility can be valuable.
Instead of asking whether something is an “Airbnb property,” we increasingly ask:
Who else could want this property?
Would someone live here?
Would someone rent it for six months?
Would another buyer want it as a second home?
Would it still be attractive if short-term rental rates softened further?
A property that makes sense under several scenarios gives an owner more options.
The rental correction has also reached the sales market
Short term rental performance and real estate prices aren’t the same thing, but they’re connected.
When investors reassess expected returns, some decide to sell.
More resale inventory gives buyers more choices. Sellers compete with other sellers and with new developments. Owners who genuinely want or need to exit become more willing to negotiate.
That is part of what we’re seeing in Tulum today.
It is a buyer’s market.
That doesn’t mean every seller is desperate, every property is discounted or every low price is a good deal.
But buyers have considerably more leverage than they did during the boom.
And that’s important.
A softer rental market can coexist with a better purchase
This sounds counterintuitive, but it’s one of the most important concepts for investors to understand.
Imagine a property produces $30,000 in annual net rental income.
At a $500,000 purchase price, that’s a 6% net yield before considering closing costs.
If market conditions allow a buyer to acquire that same property for $350,000, the same $30,000 produces an 8.6% net yield.
Nothing changed about the rental operation.
The entry price changed.
That’s why looking only at whether nightly rates are higher or lower than they were three years ago misses an important part of today’s market.
For a new buyer, what matters isn’t what someone paid in 2022.
It’s what you can buy the property for today, what it realistically produces today, and whether those numbers make sense together.
This is also why a big discount doesn’t automatically mean a good deal
We’re seeing properties advertised at 20%, 30% or sometimes even larger reductions from previous asking prices.
Those numbers attract attention. But a property originally listed at $500,000 and reduced to $350,000 isn’t automatically a bargain. Maybe it was never worth $500,000.
The relevant questions are:
What are comparable properties selling for now?
What is the price per square meter?
How good is the location?
How has the building aged?
What does the HOA cost?
What is the actual rental history?
What would it cost to replace or reproduce this property?
And perhaps most importantly:
Would someone else want to buy it from you later?
Original asking price is not the same thing as market value.
So what stands out in Tulum today?
In a market with more choice, we become more selective.
We look closely at entry price, location, construction quality, layout, privacy, density, management, operating expenses and actual rental history when available.
We also look for something harder to quantify:
a reason to choose that property over the alternatives.
Maybe it’s an unusually large terrace.
Maybe it’s walking distance to restaurants.
Maybe it’s a private pool.
Maybe it’s an ocean view.
Maybe it’s exceptional architecture.
Maybe it’s simply a much better price than comparable properties.
The reason doesn’t have to be dramatic.
But in a competitive market, it needs to exist.
So, did Airbnb break Tulum’s real estate market?
No.
But the period when almost any property could be paired with an optimistic Airbnb projection and sold as an investment is very different from the market we’re in today.
Tulum built a significant amount of real estate around short-term tourism. That created competition, put pressure on rental rates and contributed to a broader real estate correction.
But corrections also change behavior.
Buyers become more selective. Sellers become more realistic. Operators have to become better. Developers have to think harder about what people actually want to use.
And properties have to stand on their own merits.
For someone buying today, the question shouldn’t simply be:
“Does Airbnb still work in Tulum?”
A much better question is:
“Does this particular property make sense at this particular price and who will want it besides me?”
That’s the conversation we’re having with buyers today.
If you’re considering purchasing in Tulum, Malva Realty can help you compare what’s actually available, look at the numbers behind individual properties and understand where we see value in the current market.
